Leaving the EU – The Binary Consequences

Off my chosen subject this morning but after watching Question Time last night it got me thinking that politicians once again are ignoring, and not debating, the crucial consequences of the result of the forthcoming Referendum should we choose to leave the EU.

Surely there are only two consequences.   The UK either benefits from doing so or it suffers.

If it is seen that the UK benefits from leaving the EU then that in turn has a disastrous effect on the future of the EU.  It will surely lead to its ultimate collapse as other countries either leave or threaten to leave.   Threatening to leave will provide them with as much if even more political leverage to negotiate a better deal for their country, so ultimately the collapse of the EU is almost certain.

But more importantly I think, for the discussion that is going on now in the UK, is the consequence should we suffer as a result of choosing to leave,

Knock, Knock?   Can we come back in please?   We have been a bit silly, will you forgive us?

The bargaining power that David Cameron has now prior to the referendum will have disappeared.  Terms will be dictated to us by them – not the other way round.  Sure they will want us back but on terms that could even include having the Euro.  Rather unpalatable I would say.

Its a stretch of the imagination probably but I equate Cameron’s leverage now to the Corbyn Trident Deterrent issue.   Cameron has a loaded gun at the EU’s head and promises to use it (give me what I want or I will campaign to leave).   In QT last night the other politicians round the table derided Javid for not being able to say which side he would campaign for.   Well if the Tories did decide prior to the outcome of the negotiations which side of the Referendum fence they were on then that is akin to putting a blank in Cameron’s loaded gun – the ‘deterrent’ would be meaningless.

I don’t know which way I will vote in the referendum yet – I will be most persuaded by successful businessmen I think.  The EU is all about Trade really and the regulation of it.  It is what will determine whether we are to succeed or fail should we leave the EU.  The businessmen will know better than I how it will affect us all.  Is the risk of leaving and failing worth a gamble?

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2 thoughts on “Leaving the EU – The Binary Consequences

  1. In my opinion, the main problem is not the EU, it’s the domestic civil service looking at every bit of EU pronouncement (however vague) and then double copper bottoming it, before gold plating it.

    In 1983, I worked for the Milk Marketing Board when milk quotas were formulated by Brussels. Within 12 months, a milk quota regime had been effectively implemented by HMG.

    By comparison, other EU countries took their time, dragged their heels, or ignored the quota regime, potentially disadvantaging UK farmers. It was 10 years before Italy introduced quotas, and even then, ONLY when they had been bribed with a major uplift in their quota limit.

    Similarly with metric martyrs, too curved bananas etc etc; most of the things we hate about the EU are in fact the product of some over officious local or central Governement apparatchik with too much time on their hands. Supermarkets actually hold far more sway over the size and shape of our fruit and veg than the EU will ever have.

    And of course, our Little Englander press (largely owned by non-dom owners who actually live abroad) feed a constant diet of lies, distortions and half truths calculated to suit their owners agendas, whether thats the Working Time Directive or any of the other good things that have come, almost unnoticed, from Brussels.

    When travelling abroad, I have always been struck by the number of infrastructure projects that have “Co-funded by EU” notices on. The main reason we appear to get so little back from the EU is that our domestic politicians would rather die than have to promote the EU in a similar way by applying for EU cash, instead bleating about how much we send.

    And then of course, we have all those “foreigners”, flooding here, stealing our jobs! Taking into account all those millions of Brits working and living or retired to France, Spain in their Brit only enclaves, the picture is almost balanced.

    As those who work in shops and POs can testify, the main recipents of benefits are the elderly, addicted and workshy. The job stealing foreigners are the ones I see at 7 in the morning and again at 7 at night when they finish work, hours only Local SPMRs are expected to put up with.

    Let’s not forget, the mess of RM separation, NT, HS2, Heathrow expansion, Northern Rock, RBS, and of course the recent tax credits announcement are entirely the work of UK business,men and politicians, not an EU bureaucrat in sight

    The EU is a deeply flawed institution, but our inability to engage and influence is a direct result of our semi detached, hate/hate relationship with Europe, except as somewhere to go and get drunk on holiday

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    • Well Said Fim. There is a great deal of self protectionism in Brussels. The employees there have to protect their jobs by continuing to do what they were put there to do in the first place. Trouble is they did what they had to do years ago and what they do now is purely to make themselves look irreplaceable I’d call that the Bent Banana Syndrome..

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