Off my chosen subject this morning but after watching Question Time last night it got me thinking that politicians once again are ignoring, and not debating, the crucial consequences of the result of the forthcoming Referendum should we choose to leave the EU.
Surely there are only two consequences. The UK either benefits from doing so or it suffers.
If it is seen that the UK benefits from leaving the EU then that in turn has a disastrous effect on the future of the EU. It will surely lead to its ultimate collapse as other countries either leave or threaten to leave. Threatening to leave will provide them with as much if even more political leverage to negotiate a better deal for their country, so ultimately the collapse of the EU is almost certain.
But more importantly I think, for the discussion that is going on now in the UK, is the consequence should we suffer as a result of choosing to leave,
Knock, Knock? Can we come back in please? We have been a bit silly, will you forgive us?
The bargaining power that David Cameron has now prior to the referendum will have disappeared. Terms will be dictated to us by them – not the other way round. Sure they will want us back but on terms that could even include having the Euro. Rather unpalatable I would say.
Its a stretch of the imagination probably but I equate Cameron’s leverage now to the Corbyn Trident Deterrent issue. Cameron has a loaded gun at the EU’s head and promises to use it (give me what I want or I will campaign to leave). In QT last night the other politicians round the table derided Javid for not being able to say which side he would campaign for. Well if the Tories did decide prior to the outcome of the negotiations which side of the Referendum fence they were on then that is akin to putting a blank in Cameron’s loaded gun – the ‘deterrent’ would be meaningless.
I don’t know which way I will vote in the referendum yet – I will be most persuaded by successful businessmen I think. The EU is all about Trade really and the regulation of it. It is what will determine whether we are to succeed or fail should we leave the EU. The businessmen will know better than I how it will affect us all. Is the risk of leaving and failing worth a gamble?