How will it all play out?

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A few weeks ago someone asked me how I thought the Post Office Scandal would all play out. It is a question I have been pondering ever since. 

I started this blog back in 2015 with this introductory post https://problemswithpol.wordpress.com/2015/08/24/hello-world/ 

I had just got rid of my post office under the Network Transformation program (NT) but was still supportive of the future of the Post Office network if only the people in charge could see the problems that existed and did something about them.  

As for Horizon and all its problems, I had been ‘working’ on that behind the scenes and in dialogue with others for a few years already. Only a couple of months later in late 2015, Stephen Mason published the transcript of Seema Misra’s trial which provided clear and undeniable proof that a miscarriage of justice had been brought about by POL which provoked me to focus on the unfolding scandal almost exclusively. 

So how will it all unfold? 

There has to be multiple answers to this as there are different groups to consider. 

Most importantly how will it all end for those that have been affected by the scandal? That is a question only those affected can answer and I was not, so I cannot comment because I know I cannot imagine what they have been through. I did try to imagine once when I was reading Hugh Thomas’ book. I stopped to think about it as he described the cell door closing. My mind could not process it – totally unimaginable of how I might have felt or what my reactions might have been. 

All of them will eventually be provided with some amount of redress but it is becoming clear that none of them will receive the amount they requested. What a difference it would have made to their lives and to the prolonged scrutiny of POL had POL and the Government provided each and every one a few pounds more than they originally requested. When all is said and done and the legal costs of the multiple redress schemes are totalled it will surely reflect that it would have been a sound commercial decision to have done this. 

As an aside – imagine owning a shop and you sold a faulty product worth £1 to 555 customers. The customers come back for a refund. You offer them 20p, they argue with you and eventually 555 angry customers leave your shop with 80p. Imagine having 555 happy customers that leave your shop with £1,01p (not suggesting of course that any of the 555 would be happy regardless of what they receive in redress) 

That analysis of the legal costs will also provide an insight into the financial incentive the various legal firms employed by POL and the Government have enjoyed to delay and hinder the redress schemes. Perhaps the only good to come out of that particular finding will be a precedent for future scandals to be wary of. 

For Post Office Ltd, the future is bleak. It is clearly in complete disarray at the moment and the only thing saving it from meltdown is the prospect of a general election. The former Chairman is on record as saying he was told to ‘hobble’ towards that point when the new Labour Government will have to provide the new strategy for the network and I believe that to be the case (although I would disagree with his interpretation that that meant delaying redress). 

Given the public interest in all things Post Office scandal related, I don’t think the Labour party can avoid mentioning their intentions for POL in their upcoming manifesto and while it will be interesting to see what they say, there will no doubt be a caveat that any decisions will need to be delayed until the Inquiry reports. 

In typical Yes Minister fashion, the civil service will have their own opinions and will influence what the Labour Party eventually come up with. I would suggest it will be along the lines of an independent report which calls for input from interested parties and will probably take a few years to complete. If there is one thing that has come to influence my opinion on what should happen to POL over the years it is the number of ‘interested parties’ that each have their own opinion. Reaching consensus among them all is totally impossible and therefore it is pointless for me to have an opinion! 

That said, control of the destiny of POL is the key factor and it should be addressed in one way or another by the Inquiry. From the top down, and the present Secretary of State is a prime example of this, the ownership and governance of POL since separation in 2010 has been devoid of any one person with proper commercial experience and acumen until perhaps old Henry came along and look what he found. Such a mess has been made of the commercial opportunities that the network of branches could provide it has got to the point where it is unlikely to interest any potential buyers and more to the point any suitably qualified employees capable of making a difference. 

Mutualisation has been mentioned recently. It was also mentioned before in 2010 and didn’t get very far. It won’t get very far again. 

From wanting the network to flourish and succeed in 2015 to now where I couldn’t care less for an institution that has lost its public purpose and reputation.  

What will the Inquiry find in their report? 

The inquiry will probably report in late 2015. There will be severe criticism of individuals and organisations and these will be provided with an opportunity to rebut these criticisms. Then the government will act upon the recommendations. Of more interest to those involved will be the reaction of the Metropolitan Police to the findings of the Inquiry. There is a great deal of hope that certain individuals will face criminal charges but within the Civil Service there will be great concern for that to be allowed to happen. Just one trial will be enough to reopen the scandal to further scrutiny and perhaps in even greater focus than the Inquiry has had time to do. Who knows what pressure can be brought to bear on the Justice Department and the Met Police but it will be significant. I would suggest that only those miscreants identified by the Inquiry that are prepared to plead guilty will be charged with an offence. 

Of the least significance, and only to me, is how my small involvement will end. The only thing I have done really over the last year or so is to try and keep interest going on Twitter when there wasn’t any media coverage. That of course ended in January and since then I have realised just how much it took over my life. I am going to watch the Inquiry over the Summer and then try to completely disengage until …. 

POL release their new version of Horizon …. and we can start all over again. 

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends 
We’re so glad you could attend, 
Come inside, come inside